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HomeOpinion & AnalysisOpinionSix signs that show that the junta is losing the war and...

Six signs that show that the junta is losing the war and losing control of the country

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was delivering a speech on 08 Feb after he staged a military coup on 01 Feb

Photo credit: Ciao Myanmar

State Administrative Council (SAC) is getting confused and is disoriented by coordinated and synchronised attacks from all sides, in the jungles, on the streets, in the villages and towns across the country, especially since the NUG declared the people’s defensive war against the junta on September 7.

The SAC no longer has the upper hand in planning successful attacks as they are more busy dealing with surprise attacks from all corners and have no time to prepare for launching a pre-emptive offensive.

They are no longer fighting a conventional enemy or an enemy with the defined territory. They are dealing with ghostly enemies who can show up any time anywhere and inflict tremendous casualties. They are dealing with people who are now determined and willing to go after any targets, soft or hard, including family members and sympathisers or collaborators of the junta. This means that the junta will lose more of their crucial intelligence source from the ground for the lack of people willing to work as informants.

Their brutality and inhuman tactics towards the people have made them the most hated bunch. They have no sympathy or support from the overwhelming majority of the public. Most ordinary people will turn against them and slit their throats in a flash at the first opportunity.

Their desperation and lack of moral boundaries are making them commit heinous unspeakable crimes and senseless acts, which can amount to war crimes at a time when the international community is watching them closely. The longer they fight the more likely they are to commit serious mistakes that can spark an international moral outrage that will eventually unite world opinion in calling for accountability. In the past few days, some of the reported mass killings and indiscriminate attacks on civilians are cases in point.

The SAC forces are now reduced to responding to attacks or busy reinforcing troops to places where they suffer territorial losses or heavy casualties. They are operating on a survival mode and not fighting towards a strategic or even tactical goal of population or territorial control, much less the business of governing.

Salai Za Uk Ling is a program director of Chin Human Rights Organization and opinion reflected in this article is of the author – not Chindwin.


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